I'm a bit of a geek so have been pulling data from Johns Hopkins and European CDC resources and then graphing it out (deaths per day with timelines adjusted to show each country from day of 1st attributed death)

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications...-worldwide

Looks to me like we will definitely see an increase in cases over the next two weeks but our curve looks to be flattening vs Italy and Spain (who I believe will be the two worst impacted European countries)

Right now, Spain looks like it will in terrible trouble over the next two weeks - they seem to have a much steeper curve than Italy and are recording more deaths vs the same elapsed number of days (769 in last 24 hours)

I find it strange there is no footage on the TV or anywhere else from inside UK hospitals. You often see reporters working in war zones and other dangerous places, but apparently not hospitals, yet we're in the middle of the biggest crisis in the last 50 years.

I can only conclude that the government has asked media organisations not to publish such footage for fear of causing a widespread panic
(Sky News had some footage from Italian hospitals recently - it was horrifying - only watch if you are of a strong disposition, video at the bottom of the article https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-ins...-11963915)

This concerns me, are things actually worse than we are being led to believe? (and unfortunately I think its clear things will get a lot worse before they get better)

Some interesting stats and does seem to indicate that the measures intended to flatten the curve in the UK may be having some effect, now that people seem to have got the message

On the media thing, I think whoever made the call about not having reports from inside the hospitals has done the right thing. Whilst you could argue its newsworthy I think it would be more of a distraction to NHS staff and they just need to be left alone to get on with the job. I don't need to see footage of people in distress and NHS staff run off their feet to know that this is a massive crisis affecting the whole country.

And I agree with Alistair on Boris. He's 'matured' as PM in my view over the past month and, when you think of who else might well have been in that seat, he seems by far the most capable currently and not afraid to make a decision however unpopular it might be.

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Great post Graeme, agree, some of the video coming from Spain & Italy are simply horrifying. AGree with the sentiment regards Boris etc. tough job, simply has to do the best for everyone, tough, tough position.

Been working from home alongside her indoors this week, good lord , we got to Wednesday then we realised this probably will be cack with a 6 & 9y/o needing attention.

Beer time thank God, best wishes to everyone..

If those stats are based purely on numbers - then things are even worse for Spain as their population is a fair bit lower (46m) than the UK (66m), France (66m) & Italy (60m)

UK peak in 2 weeks seems to be what is being reported. The bigger question is whether it spikes again when quarantine is eventually eased off.

always liked Boris and hear that he has the virus now....


been wondering why spain and italy are suffering so much, could it be they have been having more contact with each other like congregating in cafes and restaurants....
this type of culture doesnt seem to be the way we live... ... - .- -.




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Not sure how you are giving bojo a green light on this when they first made the decision to go down the ‘herd immunity’ rout and let a few pensioners die, luckily they decided against this a week or so later but that decision already helped let the horse bolt as it were.

Also how do you forgive the continued lack of PPE for the NHS and GP’s etc? Plus not joining the EU open offer to mass purchase ventilators?

Where is the billions spent ‘preparing’ for Brexit that should have stood us in good stead here, no stock piling of medical supplies as they made oa big fuss of doing.

Where was the disaster planning and resources - the most likely disaster was fully understood and expected to be a ‘flu’ like pandemic. I have seen documentaries on this over the last 10 years.

So, no planning, poor management, slow, mixed and inconsistent messages... Good result for bojo?

He was only a couple of weeks ago saying it was probably like a common cold and making very public moves to shack hands and socialise!?? He now has CV19 himself now 🤔

I wouldn’t hold much store in the UK data either, the UK stopped testing early on, with the lack of action and flouting of the rules by the young to ‘social distance’ I would suspect the curve to be nearer Spain and Italy, the Uk certainly didn’t do anything better or quicker plus the lack of supplies including PPE for the NHS means the UK will probably be worse off than the 14% infection rate of the medical and care staff seen in Spain.

Don’t forget the Spainish medical system has been seen as in the top 3 in the world year on year where the UK in the same list was 36th I believe, aagian well behind even Italy. S-ain was only between by Singapore and Hong Kong, the US is also way a head of the UK and look at what is going on there.

Also look how densely populated the UK is compared with Italy or Spain.

Last edited by ur20v on 27th Mar 2020 4:49pm. Edited 1 time in total

IMHO a good leader is prepared to change their mind when presented with new evidence.

Herd immunity may have been the right scientific / medical advice based on the evidence at the time - and then that changed.

The trouble with this kind of thing is too many opinions - it will take a long time before we can look back and decide what would have been the best thing to do.

I have no idea whether a full lockdown 2 weeks ago would have been better or worse - the strategy as I understand it, is flatten the curve - not stop it in its tracks - so locking down too early just means it doesn't spread until you ease the quarantine - then it resurges again and you need to lockdown again. The intention seems to be that most people get it and build some level of immunity - just not all at once or the NHS can't cope.

Surely the decision should be lockdown then look at the slow release not sacrificing the elderly and young with underlying health issues? Their first stance was to put the economy first just like Trump???

Probably going slightly off topic here, but does the essential travel only, not apply to motorcyclists?
My abode is not far from the A57 Worksop bypass, and for the last few days it sounds as if several rounds of Moto GP have been staged there
I might be wrong here, but I can't see it being essential exercise.
Also, if the worst should happen, and one comes a cropper, how many emergency services will be required to assist.

Ducati have just launched their V4 Street Fighter in the UK, Youtubers have been sharing it around so likely this 👍

ur20v wrote:

Where was the disaster planning and resources - the most likely disaster was fully understood and expected to be a ‘flu’ like pandemic. I have seen documentaries on this over the last 10 years.

Thanks Weegie, I have seen that TED talk as well. It’s an eye opener.

When in senior management we had all sorts of disaster plans and scenarios where we actively looked at our plans and procedures, alternatives supplies and stocks etc, we would have been sacked for this level of unpreparedness.

WHO has been saying since January, take action, prepare.... looks like the UK were just tipping billions down the drain to ‘prepare’ for Brexit and supply chain issues let alone any preparedness for a natural or not disaster or crisis

Don’t think you can compare a company rehearsing several bad case scenario incidents to running a country through the biggest crisis since the 2nd world war.

It's like any insurance - it seems to expensive - until you need it - and then you wonder why you didn't buy it.

Anyone and everyone could have taken out personal income protection insurance - but didn't.....

Or even saved up a bit, but most didn't and now need bailing out......

3 weeks ago I was still booking flights for April.....

(This week I booked a bunch of winter flights when EasyJet released them but hey, I'm an optimist )

Hindsight is a wonderful thing